tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-39667771267281641422024-02-19T23:54:01.993+08:00Forexiation - diary of a Perth forex traderUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger444125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3966777126728164142.post-43043417254782064312019-12-20T11:04:00.002+08:002019-12-20T11:04:42.924+08:00Still in it...For those curious, I'm still trading and am doing well. I've withdrawn from most social media. Social media has its pros and cons, but I feel the cons outweigh the pros these days.<div>
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Anyway, I wish everyone all the best. </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3966777126728164142.post-60941064623427071782018-02-06T14:38:00.001+08:002018-02-06T14:38:58.304+08:00Review of January 2018Had a good start to 2018. Bagged three winners, while enduring one loss.<br />
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<b>10th January - NZDUSD</b><br />
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Saw a small retracement during the uptrend, and went long on the break of the bearish candle.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVK_XEFOxpuZtXeKBibzfhVCO-OcbLGMUq5QIIAd6vBfiiAgxo9HKZX9IMH9GmUcBGQfyaylMl4nADAdcymAI7Bgt7vjHm895XJUOvNcA0mAQjfpt_ndoBHSnzaWYU1hlrbN-J0Qv2eyk8/s1600/nzdusd1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="522" data-original-width="580" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVK_XEFOxpuZtXeKBibzfhVCO-OcbLGMUq5QIIAd6vBfiiAgxo9HKZX9IMH9GmUcBGQfyaylMl4nADAdcymAI7Bgt7vjHm895XJUOvNcA0mAQjfpt_ndoBHSnzaWYU1hlrbN-J0Qv2eyk8/s1600/nzdusd1.png" /></a></div>
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<b>17th January - NZDUSD</b><br />
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Went long on the NZDUSD again, but was quickly chopped out.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitdbG1yChPIm-Oqr60Kmf121IaU-RtDYchGB6T2mcAb5iUogAk_0YfTeldrk8MuhYl8OVHGzQAq6538DKJS4eQgJj5305wOXLz0wrS9aOtShodK7tB72KaY8KvFcIvF_Jqt1F31A0oYbZy/s1600/nzdusd2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="579" data-original-width="581" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitdbG1yChPIm-Oqr60Kmf121IaU-RtDYchGB6T2mcAb5iUogAk_0YfTeldrk8MuhYl8OVHGzQAq6538DKJS4eQgJj5305wOXLz0wrS9aOtShodK7tB72KaY8KvFcIvF_Jqt1F31A0oYbZy/s1600/nzdusd2.png" /></a></div>
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<b>19th January - GBPCHF</b><br />
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This trade moved in my favour very quickly.<br />
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<b>24th January - EURGBP</b><br />
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Went short on the EURGBP after a small retracement and bagged a win.<br />
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<b>Miscellaneous</b><br />
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With the holidays over, I began to spend more time on backtesting and research again. Fingers crossed for the rest of 2018!Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3966777126728164142.post-74382363993848950212018-02-03T18:49:00.001+08:002018-02-03T18:49:09.820+08:002017 YEAR IN REVIEW<div style="text-align: justify;">
I really should get back into blogging...</div>
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Anyway, this were my results for 2017.</div>
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<b style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-align: justify;">RESULTS</b><br />
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Trades taken: 81</div>
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Equity growth: -6.58%</div>
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Maximum drawdown: 14.08%</div>
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Average risk per trade: 1.06%</div>
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<b>Profit factor: 0.82</b></div>
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These were my results for 2016...</div>
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Trades taken: 121</div>
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Equity growth: 15.3%</div>
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Maximum drawdown: 8.61%</div>
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Average risk per trade: 1.18%</div>
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<b>Profit factor: 1.26</b></div>
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So I made a loss of -6.6% at the end of 2017. It's not a good thing. I initially started the year with blistering position sizes between 2% and 3%. I felt very confident after being profitable for two running years.</div>
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By mid-year, my drawdown approached 14%. I'd begun reducing my position drastically to around 0.5%-1%. </div>
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One particular trade blew a 5% hole in my trading account (mentioned <a href="http://forexiation.blogspot.com.au/2017/10/latest-update-on-2017-results.html">here</a>). </div>
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I noticed some psychological effects in my trading as a result of an extended drawdown:</div>
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1) I traded less. In a way, this is a good thing. If you have a negative edge, you WANT to trade less, and ideally, not at all. But because I traded less, my self-identity as a trader began to fade. In my opinion, during extended drawdown, try to trade, but trade extremely small. A token position worth a few dollars may be preferable than nothing at all. At least you'll stay connected with the market, and get cheap feedback on your trading. </div>
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2) I spent more time on other hobbies. It's good to diversify your interests. But because I was doing other things, I spent much less time on research and backtesting, which impaired my self-improvement as a trader.</div>
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3) I began losing vision of my future. This is probably the big one. When your dream begins slipping away, it's very easy to grow disillusioned. You lose alot of motivation. Honestly, I don't have a solution to this, except to just keep grinding, and perhaps to keep your vision vague? I know some people recommend setting specific targets to hit, so you can find the most efficient strategy to hit those targets (e.g. to lose X kilograms per week, I need to reduce my daily energy intake by Y calories). But you can't do that with something as unpredictable as trading. Just take one trade at a time and execute. </div>
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<b>So what to do?</b></div>
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I made a list of what I think are positive and negative sources of edge <a href="http://forexiation.blogspot.com.au/2017/12/sources-of-positive-and-negative-edges.html">here</a>. This wasn't a random exercise. I wanted to see what I could implement (or get rid off) to get my trading back on track. </div>
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Going into 2018, I'm sticking to a single strategy for now (low volatility breakout). I don't have full confidence in some of the other systems I developed. My #1 goal is to finish 2018 with a positive number. The size of that number doesn't matter, as long as it's positive.</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3966777126728164142.post-78029861465312717372017-12-28T21:03:00.001+08:002017-12-28T21:03:10.582+08:00Sources of positive and negative edges<div style="text-align: justify;">
Just a rough summary that I scribbled in my notebook.</div>
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<b>SOURCES OF POSITIVE EDGE (apply as much as possible)</b></div>
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<b>+ </b>trade against retail sentiment</div>
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+ trade with positive carry/swap</div>
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+ historically positive technical strategies</div>
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+ trade in favour of hawkish vs dovish currencies</div>
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+ trade higher timeframes</div>
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+ possess more trading capital</div>
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+ mental resilience</div>
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+ anti-martingale position sizing (reduce positions as you lose, increase as you win)</div>
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+ longevity (the longer you survive, the more you learn)</div>
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+ meditation & exercise</div>
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+ emotional detachment from outcomes</div>
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+ have other income sources</div>
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+ ignore other traders' opinions (trade your edge only)</div>
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+ check markets routinely and on time (don't enter late)</div>
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+ constant learning & journaling</div>
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+ networking</div>
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<b>SOURCES OF NEGATIVE EDGE (avoid as much as possible)</b></div>
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- fees and commission</div>
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- negative carry/swap</div>
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- price gaps and extreme spread (avoid news & trading over weekends)</div>
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- no trading plan and strategy</div>
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- not following trading plan and strategy</div>
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- martingale position sizing (avoid increasing positions after losing)</div>
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- emotional investment in trades ("I must win", "I'll look bad if I lose" etc)</div>
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- performance anxiety / trigger-shy</div>
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- excess leisure (erodes discipline and drive)</div>
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- distractions (time and energy are diverted elsewhere)</div>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3966777126728164142.post-84772621181895622252017-10-26T23:00:00.000+08:002017-10-26T23:00:02.353+08:00Latest update on 2017 results<div style="text-align: justify;">
Just a quick update on my trades for this year.</div>
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I'm currently at a -2.95% loss for the year, just below breakeven. I'm not really happy, but it could be alot worse. </div>
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This whole year has basically been a grind around the breakeven mark, falling behind, pulling ahead, and then falling behind again.</div>
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I backtested all my systems up to the present and dropped those that stopped performing,. I'll wait until when (or if) they return to profitablity. Waiting is free. </div>
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It's <b>very important </b>to have drawdown rules in place. Reducing your risk during drawdown will allow you to survive until your trading turns around. It's boring, but it has to be done. </div>
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To be honest, I violated my own drawdown rules a few times, and paid the price. If I had been true to my rules, I'd probably be slightly profitable by now. During August, I risked 3% on a single trade when I should've stuck to 1%. I held the trade over the weekend, and the market gapped against me on Monday morning. I lost 5% when price opened way beyond my stop loss, more than the 3% I anticipated. I might talk about this trade in a future entry as it provided a few key lessons - stick to your rules, and maybe reduce your risk when leaving a trade open over the weekend. </div>
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It's also important to find interests outside of trading. During times of drawdown / breakeven, you'll want to find other sources of success or motivation in your life. It could be fitness, knowledge, or maybe a new skill. Don't base your identity solely on being a trader. </div>
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Survive. Play great defence. If you truly are better, you will win in the end. And if you aren't better? A tight defence will keep you in the game indefinitely. </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3966777126728164142.post-83926884119108019552017-07-06T22:12:00.004+08:002017-07-06T22:12:47.595+08:00Hey hey!Just a short message. I've set comments to moderated / disabled since this blog has been spammed to hell. Still alive and trading. :)Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3966777126728164142.post-67913601590358135982016-12-30T01:16:00.000+08:002016-12-30T01:16:28.257+08:002016 YEAR IN REVIEW<div style="text-align: justify;">
Hey everyone, here's my performance review for 2016!</div>
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<b>RESULTS</b></div>
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This year I made a return of 15.3%. Most of that was made during the first seven months of 2016, which was then followed by slow, gradual drawdown which has thankfully stabilised over the last few months.</div>
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Trades taken: 121</div>
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Equity growth: 15.3%</div>
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Maximum drawdown: 8.61%</div>
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Average risk per trade: 1.18%</div>
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<b>Profit factor: 1.26</b></div>
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My results from 2015...</div>
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Trades taken: 112</div>
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Equity growth: 18.77%</div>
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Maximum drawdown: 10.55%</div>
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Average risk per trade: 1.96%</div>
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<b>Profit factor: 1.26</b></div>
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Yeah, my profit factor for 2015 and 2016 are exactly the same. It's not a typo. </div>
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Here's my equity curve from both 2015 and 2016:</div>
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<b>2015 - 2016</b></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrdK-CWwMVfo6XTUi1J7rpa7naMzO76_GbNoyMwQJ4mfsGvBZiNBuSG9IGS8xjKiuSKy4ozha1JqUZ20Zk8IS4MPVkFcsttTJ6WFgtDdXHJJGi_0Ma96Kt_LJSYKGsKjyy8rhvi31xTDa_/s1600/eq2.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="344" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgrdK-CWwMVfo6XTUi1J7rpa7naMzO76_GbNoyMwQJ4mfsGvBZiNBuSG9IGS8xjKiuSKy4ozha1JqUZ20Zk8IS4MPVkFcsttTJ6WFgtDdXHJJGi_0Ma96Kt_LJSYKGsKjyy8rhvi31xTDa_/s640/eq2.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
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(click to enlarge)</div>
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Take note of the linear regression line, and how R^2 is 0.89. This is from real world results. That is <i>beautiful</i>. If you're wondering why the first half of the equity curve looks more volatile, it's because I traded with higher risk in 2015 (average 1.96% per trade), while in 2016, my risk was nearly half, at an average of 1.18% per trade.</div>
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<b>Major developments for 2016</b></div>
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<i>I'm officially a trader</i></div>
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It's time to officially call myself a trader. After half a decade of learning and two years of consistent live trading, I've assembled a very good equity curve that I'm very proud of. That's real, hard cash that I've extracted from the market by myself. It's all real. </div>
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<i>Myfxbook</i></div>
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At the start of the year, I opened a public <a href="http://www.myfxbook.com/members/kevin_lacoste/chain-breaker/1466627">Myfxbook</a> account that I've maintained throughout 2016. It's been an interesting experience, but after a year, I no longer see much upside in continuing the account. I've noticed myself becoming anxious with people watching my trading account. What do I get out of it? I've considered trading other people's money and using Myfxbook to attract investors, but in the end, I feel better trading for myself only. It'd be nice (and lucrative) to trade other people's money, but there's alot of legal and psychological obstacles to overcome that can only erode my edge. And for me, trading is about freedom. So I plan to turn the account to private early next year. </div>
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<b>Goals for 2017</b></div>
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<i>Plugging leaks</i></div>
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At this point, it's no longer about finding the "perfect" trading system. It's about finding and plugging all the leaks that erode my edge - physical, mental, financial, psychological etc. I'm taking inventory of <i>everything. </i>If it harms me, I'm letting it go. </div>
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<i>Reduce work hours?</i></div>
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If I can maintain my trading results, I can look at reducing my working hours in my RL job. That's the dream of all traders, right? :) At the least, I've got options. I have one foot out of the rat race already. It's a very good place to be. :)</div>
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And that's that! A profitable year is a good year. </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3966777126728164142.post-7462235468708320462016-12-09T21:14:00.001+08:002016-12-09T21:16:03.715+08:00Week in Review: 5 Dec to 11 Dec 2016<div style="text-align: justify;">
Hey everyone. I only put on a single trade this week, which I fumbled as I'll explain below.</div>
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<b>NZDUSD</b></div>
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I'm not happy with this trade. Not happy at all.</div>
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Basically I saw a good bullish setup on the NZDUSD. According to my system, a reward-to-risk of 0.5R to 1R was ideal. I tended towards greed, and aimed for a 1R reward. My profit target was below the next resistance level, so I thought it was still reasonable.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjj9g8EE1dJvkcoYkP9b9fzYn4V9QBBEbK-d0dPeplTeMhzeGBRnyFYmjb2MlaCp9xBbMhyBjVbCJDxOpoYyVJxKQdGHW5miDeD8_h1-44ZMPlHiQLxVEI8BMYpdalzOgrE4G6_lwHvdPP2/s1600/nzdusd.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="602" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjj9g8EE1dJvkcoYkP9b9fzYn4V9QBBEbK-d0dPeplTeMhzeGBRnyFYmjb2MlaCp9xBbMhyBjVbCJDxOpoYyVJxKQdGHW5miDeD8_h1-44ZMPlHiQLxVEI8BMYpdalzOgrE4G6_lwHvdPP2/s640/nzdusd.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Retail sentiment was slightly bearish (55%), which tilted the odds towards a bullish breakout.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZDQMLUO1BlL1Q-KNT01FEDm1FB5PHPgo1-klIhvLt8-Z_ibhJZ8jCtnb4aizjVu_x_F4-ISfMnnvJWVw0rP7ykDRIwQUbM0p12BneOg1Qbm0ttcKKL2gyIHXi9NmUG0LGsJlVPPpb47qc/s1600/Capture.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="68" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZDQMLUO1BlL1Q-KNT01FEDm1FB5PHPgo1-klIhvLt8-Z_ibhJZ8jCtnb4aizjVu_x_F4-ISfMnnvJWVw0rP7ykDRIwQUbM0p12BneOg1Qbm0ttcKKL2gyIHXi9NmUG0LGsJlVPPpb47qc/s640/Capture.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
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Price did breakout in my favour, and reached 75% of my profit target. And then the European Central Bank statement came out for that day, causing the NZDUSD to tank. I wasn't aware of this until an hour later when I logged on, at which point I promptly closed the trade near breakeven.</div>
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Mistake #1 - Being away from the charts during a big news event</div>
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I was away from a live chart and didn't realise how big the reversal was until an hour after the ECB statement came out.</div>
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Mistake #2 - Being casual about big news events</div>
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I honestly didn't think the ECB would influence the NZDUSD that much. I need to be more mindful of central bank statements, as central banks are the biggest players in the forex market. Anything that can move the EURUSD can spill over onto other pairs as the EURUSD is the biggest currency pair in the world. Plus the ECB and the US Federal Reserve are the two biggest central banks in the world. Respect.</div>
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Mistake #3 - Not taking profit before a big news event</div>
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Price was between 0.5R and 0.75R before the ECB statement came out. It was within my profit-taking "green zone" for this particular system. My policy is to close profitable trades before big news, especially when it is near my profit target. But because I was away from the charts, I wasn't aware of the situation and didn't close the trade at a profit. </div>
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Mistake #4 - Being too greedy</div>
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While the reward of 1R was technically good, news events should be taken into consideration as well. Will my trade have enough time to reach its profit target before news comes out? If the answer's no, then a tighter profit target might be better (in this case, 0.5R to 0.75R). </div>
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My loss was very minor (-0.1R, or -0.15%), but it's the mismanagement of this trade that hurts more. It was pointless. I did have the option of keeping the trade open as it only fell back to breakeven, but I felt the psychological pain would be alot greater if the trade turned against me completely and hit my stop loss. I'll take the very small loss and consider it a cheap price for these lessons. :)</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3966777126728164142.post-42993032064870119042016-12-04T00:28:00.001+08:002016-12-04T00:57:20.057+08:00Review of November 2016<div style="text-align: justify;">
I ended November slightly positive, growing the account by 0.65%. However, this doesn't balance the loss I made back in October (-2.5%).</div>
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<a href="http://www.myfxbook.com/members/kevin_lacoste/chain-breaker/1466627">Myfxbook</a></div>
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Trades: 7</div>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-align: justify;">Account growth: 0.65%</span><br />
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I'm on track to finish 2016 with a return of over 10%. In fact, if December is friendly to me, I can finish with a 15% return. </div>
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My number of trades for November was low, 7 vs my monthly average of 11. Out of curiosity, I checked to see how the number of trades per month affected my monthly performance.</div>
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Average number of trades for winning months: 10</div>
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Average number of trades for losing months: 12.33</div>
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Number of trades for best month (4.45% return): 4</div>
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Number of trades for worst month (-2.93% return): 18</div>
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Essentially, during losing months, I'd trade more often. I put this down to being more loose with my signal criteria. When you're losing or find yourself in doubt, TRADE LESS!</div>
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During November, I paid greater attention to retail sentiment, which reduced the number of trades I put on. I also kept my risk very low for the month, capping my max position size to 1%.<br />
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<b><b>RESEARCH</b></b><br />
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My research for November was very dry. I didn't develop any new leads or insights. It's becoming a struggle to find new angles to research. </div>
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<b>NEXT MONTH</b></div>
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The markets will tend to settle down as Christmas approaches. I plan to stay out from the 19th of December, and re-enter after New Year's Day.<br />
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Good luck to everyone, and have a merry Christmas! </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3966777126728164142.post-22701257652210906542016-11-28T06:44:00.002+08:002016-11-28T06:44:20.085+08:00Daily Trade - 28 Nov 2016<div style="text-align: justify;">
I'm preparing to go long on the USDCAD with a buy limit order at Friday's low. Price action is quite choppy, but this is good for limit entry orders.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkTlS5n68DqitY2KISt6pvEYSSyxaRvoSbp0WtaxlIRnl2Jjik3sfMEO8nEpQHeLAKJi6N7-uYV5nA0yA8OXulaW5lyJV2TpxjIDMILCWuBW1rmR8_xTvXLXalups6vL-_xlH-jbWIGcv6/s1600/usdcad.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="444" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkTlS5n68DqitY2KISt6pvEYSSyxaRvoSbp0WtaxlIRnl2Jjik3sfMEO8nEpQHeLAKJi6N7-uYV5nA0yA8OXulaW5lyJV2TpxjIDMILCWuBW1rmR8_xTvXLXalups6vL-_xlH-jbWIGcv6/s640/usdcad.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Retail sentiment is 69% bearish, which is good.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtCFBmUj0OvOXy7pN5kVBYwvJ75YjgcX9Eou3vwZyoiz5y7i_dacfrdQ6vPzNCNG5LuKMGxfMHZs_oaFoFme3RlVi70NksDtXeEl0BLt-9MsRxuyvpUm4j_ktWX4xX0me5iE0LtbiWdlVd/s1600/gfd.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="64" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtCFBmUj0OvOXy7pN5kVBYwvJ75YjgcX9Eou3vwZyoiz5y7i_dacfrdQ6vPzNCNG5LuKMGxfMHZs_oaFoFme3RlVi70NksDtXeEl0BLt-9MsRxuyvpUm4j_ktWX4xX0me5iE0LtbiWdlVd/s640/gfd.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
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If triggered, I anticipate this trade to close within 2-3 days. There's no major news on the horizon for the next 72 hours. </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3966777126728164142.post-69971077929598215952016-11-25T14:41:00.003+08:002016-11-25T14:53:27.554+08:00Daily Trade - 24 Nov 2016<div>
I went long on the GBPCHF. Price just broke through a short-term resistance level, and produced a solid engulfing candle pattern. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsvLoYOHfuu1Pi7nNnsns5TVFkNgZ-ORtVhM6SBrVKYIc6rF_ggPimbsrtdG1bFb6C5WY6Ym4o0ok_KNOyxJhPwEU91LVBohlkqvxIDjcyGe5KvJ9y25PCODPV3bXhyyUGdxtA9W120fAu/s1600/gbpchf.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="483" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsvLoYOHfuu1Pi7nNnsns5TVFkNgZ-ORtVhM6SBrVKYIc6rF_ggPimbsrtdG1bFb6C5WY6Ym4o0ok_KNOyxJhPwEU91LVBohlkqvxIDjcyGe5KvJ9y25PCODPV3bXhyyUGdxtA9W120fAu/s640/gbpchf.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Retail sentiment is mostly bullish, though (63%).</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGw-1n7c5QVgYXNJIFBXYqUcEaQqXIXVqul22fM79-OLxZGLEmSkWfmiNxByAKrwhhnSPmp1VWsYnUo0f-XHJCI3xh9biCr9vWPmkgVaVkmCe88qa0K8F8M5nlsN_wZVmZXzIwzvWmTZrf/s1600/gfh.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="65" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGw-1n7c5QVgYXNJIFBXYqUcEaQqXIXVqul22fM79-OLxZGLEmSkWfmiNxByAKrwhhnSPmp1VWsYnUo0f-XHJCI3xh9biCr9vWPmkgVaVkmCe88qa0K8F8M5nlsN_wZVmZXzIwzvWmTZrf/s640/gfh.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
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I don't like trading WITH retail sentiment as they're usually wrong, but the technicals for a long position line up very well, so I'm taking the trade, but with reduced risk (0.75% instead of 1% that I normally trade).</div>
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Upcoming events:</div>
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Nov 28 Monday - ECB speech regarding Brexit. Potential for significant impact, although it'll be the politicians, and not the central banks, that'll determine the nature of Brexit. Bank of England has already released its post-Brexit economic forecast, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/11/03/bank-of-england-stages-post-brexit-u-turn-as-it-hikes-growth-for/">which is very bullish</a>. I'll stay in the trade during this event.</div>
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2 Dec Friday - NFP. Last one for the year, but generally doesn't move the GBPCHF much. Will stay in the trade unless very close to profit target.</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3966777126728164142.post-1103862762658094372016-09-30T22:17:00.000+08:002016-09-30T22:17:40.047+08:00Review of September 2016I managed to scratch a bit of profit during September, increasing my account by 0.44%.<br />
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<a href="http://www.myfxbook.com/members/kevin_lacoste/chain-breaker/1466627">Myfxbook</a><br />
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Trades: 7</div>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-align: justify;">Account growth: 0.44%</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-align: justify;">September has been very quiet. I normally open 10+ trades per month, but during September, I only opened seven. I was more selective about my trades this month, mainly because of the loss I endured during August.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-align: justify;">I limited my risk to 0.5%, up to a maximum of 1% for a few trades. I believe if I had been more aggressive with my risk, I probably would've grown my account by 1% for the month. That's the price you pay for being conservative.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-align: justify;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-align: justify;">I also reached my 100th trade milestone this month. A snapshot of my trading account is below (click to enlarge):</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2-zu8_GToyod0622c-6qTRmciBLecVncBnH0MI9kw-0uUKUa5RowK4mM3HADAdKJ7wabE7fLFf-kMXYdQ1_U__r4dTahP0074aryiyQb-Gv8SvKA3FOgVb0LBzDMqgWoGsaHrvDipcq0m/s1600/1.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="310" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2-zu8_GToyod0622c-6qTRmciBLecVncBnH0MI9kw-0uUKUa5RowK4mM3HADAdKJ7wabE7fLFf-kMXYdQ1_U__r4dTahP0074aryiyQb-Gv8SvKA3FOgVb0LBzDMqgWoGsaHrvDipcq0m/s640/1.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitrG5svrHqm00gKh4x1iQC20aJAavhS1boF1mkTcjyQ7_C9nu0BLTojxFf7camtrF5M5LcbcqlMy26AFCZgxAFNh_2Zs03MUSiK_yinZzJuyMCcaOjR9VH_VwKkBNR6RCO_n3nezGi7R94/s1600/2.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="160" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitrG5svrHqm00gKh4x1iQC20aJAavhS1boF1mkTcjyQ7_C9nu0BLTojxFf7camtrF5M5LcbcqlMy26AFCZgxAFNh_2Zs03MUSiK_yinZzJuyMCcaOjR9VH_VwKkBNR6RCO_n3nezGi7R94/s640/2.PNG" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-align: justify;">My profit factor is currently 1.31, which is on par with my backtests. </span><br style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-align: justify;" /><br style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-align: justify;" /><b style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-align: justify;">RESEARCH</b><br style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-align: justify;" /><br style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-align: justify;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-align: justify;">I've devoted September to researching ranging markets, with limited success. I've developed a range breakout system, although I'm not 100% happy with it. This is a backtest equity curve from 239 sample trades, from 2012 to 2016:</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhFnHtsc8vMMVSB3h1yMfpzTBCq7RxFbos2g_UJPfWYlnfApeu44s2oRhI0kRbPg5ECoyvC9Z5PmR27TSwpMT7DCyHb7niQGPVr_i8r2zLebW9C-CNgrd-2LbixJw29z49LEG4hMmOhyphenhyphenfZ/s1600/eq.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhFnHtsc8vMMVSB3h1yMfpzTBCq7RxFbos2g_UJPfWYlnfApeu44s2oRhI0kRbPg5ECoyvC9Z5PmR27TSwpMT7DCyHb7niQGPVr_i8r2zLebW9C-CNgrd-2LbixJw29z49LEG4hMmOhyphenhyphenfZ/s1600/eq.PNG" /></a></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-align: justify;">My main concern is how "lumpy" my wins are. I'd prefer to see a more even distribution of wins and losses. I'll continue my research in October.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-align: justify;"><b>NEXT MONTH</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-align: justify;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px; text-align: justify;">My current drawdown is still over 5%, so I'll keep my risk to 1% per trade during October. Once my drawdown falls below 5%, I can ramp up my risk to 1.5%-2%.<br /></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3966777126728164142.post-57717999941884435492016-09-30T21:35:00.000+08:002016-09-30T21:35:10.261+08:00Week in Review: 26 Sept to 2 Oct 2016<div style="text-align: justify;">
This week was profitable. I opened two trades, winning one and exiting another at breakeven.</div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b>GBPNZD</b></div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
I saw a good sell signal on the GBPNZD on Monday morning, and went short at Friday's high. Price moved in my favour quickly, and I took profit at 1.1R. I thought about extending my profit target, but didn't want to get too greedy.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLqlJzQpBPjRkoqP7qdMRYtbAuvJzeTY6SsGcWjEnenQ6lZ51cogk2e_JccWmLOu41c9qVIFh7ap8JjKSuduPUpxh18EH3idQmiuytOHgqy1U4NjRaN35lxlA1gHZjMOinOK2xtEsUNp53/s1600/gbpnzd.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLqlJzQpBPjRkoqP7qdMRYtbAuvJzeTY6SsGcWjEnenQ6lZ51cogk2e_JccWmLOu41c9qVIFh7ap8JjKSuduPUpxh18EH3idQmiuytOHgqy1U4NjRaN35lxlA1gHZjMOinOK2xtEsUNp53/s1600/gbpnzd.png" /></a></div>
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<br />
<b>EURGBP</b><br />
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The EURGBP hit resistance at 0.87000 this week, and produced a bearish signal. I went short at the break of Tuesday's low. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
However, Wednesday produced a neutral doji. When Thursday failed to break any lower, I decided to play it safe and exit near breakeven (technically it was a loss, but only -0.08R). Wednesday's neutral candle and confusing signals on other GBP pairs compelled me to exit while I was still able.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijggH0DX0EfZt-5asyWClf_Xr5BhtaUXADasg0dJyiX3pppbFxKg-DOZyq9RyWakZxEeUab1BGMDi8l2etmXXPzwgbLFgPOlHohgXU9J2cjniZrDKR-odk-4A9YVOoYql_Wdenlxn3HrfF/s1600/eurgbp.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEijggH0DX0EfZt-5asyWClf_Xr5BhtaUXADasg0dJyiX3pppbFxKg-DOZyq9RyWakZxEeUab1BGMDi8l2etmXXPzwgbLFgPOlHohgXU9J2cjniZrDKR-odk-4A9YVOoYql_Wdenlxn3HrfF/s1600/eurgbp.png" /></a></div>
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<b>THOUGHTS</b><br />
<br />
I continued to keep my risk low this week (0.5%-1% risk per trade). The week was uneventful, which is a good thing. </div>
</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3966777126728164142.post-77106044517286465182016-09-23T18:35:00.000+08:002016-09-23T18:35:21.663+08:00Week in Review: 19 Sept to 25 Sept 2016This week has been pretty quiet. I only opened a single trade.<br />
<br />
Both the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan released monetary statements on Wednesday, which complicated things a little.<br />
<br />
<b>EURJPY</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
On Monday morning, I went long on the EURJPY. I placed a buy order at Friday's low, anticipating that price would rebound upwards.<br />
<br />
Because my profit target and stop loss were pretty tight, I hoped to close this trade by late Tuesday, just before the Bank of Japan's announcement on Wednesday.<br />
<br />
However, by mid Tuesday, price was going nowhere and hovered near breakeven. I didn't want to be in the market by Wednesday morning, so I closed the trade at a very small loss (-0.2R).<br />
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When the BOJ announcement came out, price fell and would've hit my stop loss. I'm happy to have got out relatively unscathed.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzoQ-jiL7-p0OZjz_vQw1OOzZBexhNZvV9mtEerVJuSwmP5atYt-DJ-DC5wrT7wxVGmAIsymxYOj_V_DYg-g6hHGhZDdFB4HGagWoCp2fo9KlvAB00EYdOngfLvJelibpnPI7cxQDiM2XG/s1600/eurjpy.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzoQ-jiL7-p0OZjz_vQw1OOzZBexhNZvV9mtEerVJuSwmP5atYt-DJ-DC5wrT7wxVGmAIsymxYOj_V_DYg-g6hHGhZDdFB4HGagWoCp2fo9KlvAB00EYdOngfLvJelibpnPI7cxQDiM2XG/s1600/eurjpy.png" /></a></div>
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<br />
<b>RESEARCH</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
I'm currently focusing on a range breakout strategy. The backtest results look interesting so far. I'll post more details if further backtesting is successful.<br />
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<b>THOUGHTS</b><br />
<br />
September continues to be slow. I've kept to my risk limit of 0.5%-1% per trade, and will continue to do so until I see my equity curve turn positive again.<br />
<br />
Being aware of news saved my hide this week. Always plan your trade around major news events.<br />
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3966777126728164142.post-27413592004326805332016-09-01T23:01:00.000+08:002016-09-01T23:01:15.465+08:00Review of August 2016<div style="text-align: justify;">
August has been pretty brutal. My account slid -2.93% for the month. </div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
<a href="http://www.myfxbook.com/members/kevin_lacoste/chain-breaker/1466627">Myfxbook</a></div>
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Trades: 18</div>
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Account growth: -2.93%</div>
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July and August has seen volatility drop across a large number of pairs, especially the JPY and GBP. Most of my systems rely on breakouts with a trend, so quiet, indecisive markets hurt me alot. I think this hole needs to be plugged, so I'm going to spend September focusing on researching quiet market conditions, and hopefully come up with something that's tradeable. </div>
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As mentioned in my previous post, I've already reduced my risk for August to a maximum of 1.5%. But my drawdown is becoming uncomfortable (around 6% now), so for September, I'm reducing my risk further to 0.5%. At this point, it's not about making money. It's about stopping the bleeding, and waiting for my equity curve to turn upward again with some consistency. Once that happens, I can bring up my risk again. </div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3966777126728164142.post-5984564679771894712016-08-02T22:18:00.001+08:002016-08-02T22:18:32.736+08:00Review of July 2016<div style="text-align: justify;">
I'm back. I took a "break" over the last few weeks and took my mind off trading (although I still traded). I just wanted some time off to recharge my batteries and do something else with my free time besides trading. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
July was a breakeven month for me. I grew my account by a marginal 0.08%. </div>
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<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<a href="http://www.myfxbook.com/members/kevin_lacoste/chain-breaker/1466627">Myfxbook</a></div>
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<br /></div>
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Trades: 12</div>
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Account growth: 0.08%</div>
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I closed twelve trades in July, which is what I expected. The major theme for me was the "Brexit" referendum and its aftermath (although the GBP has calmed down now. But I feel a major move is about to take place again as markets don't range forever).</div>
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Because I only broke even for July, I'm reducing my maximum risk to 1.5% for August. I'm not in tune with the market, but I'm not completely out of tune either. I think 1.5% strikes a reasonable balance.</div>
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I believe that sticking close to 1:1 R:R ratios has prevented a losing streak for July. My distribution of wins and losses during July is well-mixed. </div>
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My sticking point for July is being more aware of news. There was at least one trade that I should've avoided (I went long on the USDCHF just before the Federal Reserve made an announcement on 27 July. This was a stupid trade, and was purely based on a technical setup that became invalid on the release of news). ALWAYS be aware of upcoming news as they have the power to overturn technical setups. </div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3966777126728164142.post-90956457240681450122016-07-15T22:23:00.001+08:002016-07-15T22:26:21.244+08:00Week in Review: 11 June to 17 July 2016<div style="text-align: justify;">
I've finished this week near breakeven. I had one winner, one loser and one breakeven trade. </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b>AUDNZD</b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
I opened this trade on Monday, feeling very confident. The AUDNZD had just broken downwards and retraced back to the previous support level. I went short at Friday's high using a sell limit order, but the AUDNZD rocketed upwards and eventually took me out.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCcnbqdkJTytCRrF7Yrt20GdoqpK5XWHOV4s8JFpuPgjW0njyXdDPSPt07Ai-BkK-kyeME6K3S_bVvc5XQtPZheQYTcz4GVbXLRyepmnQ8iDkkXlqu_1i19MQaVaHz-iIF6LCWhomgLA5Y/s1600/audnzd.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCcnbqdkJTytCRrF7Yrt20GdoqpK5XWHOV4s8JFpuPgjW0njyXdDPSPt07Ai-BkK-kyeME6K3S_bVvc5XQtPZheQYTcz4GVbXLRyepmnQ8iDkkXlqu_1i19MQaVaHz-iIF6LCWhomgLA5Y/s1600/audnzd.png" /></a></div>
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<br />
<b>EURCAD</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
I spotted a two-candle reversal pattern, and went short at the break of the low. I wasn't too happy about the low probability of this setup, and only risked 1% instead of my maximum of 2%. My problem was the close proximity of two support levels, which had to break to reach my profit target of 1R. After a few days, I decided to get out near breakeven (technically I was profitable, but my profit was only 0.1R, which is nothing). I should've avoided this trade in the first place. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVuRufAX0paXY7UmoJi87J-d9toCmsyJBKgz5mM1I2BPkbMBmlIInxOGFAiXT2Y1S5xuUJzensca60p06wCFH-S_1k_T-u8ENW-BpTrei5m3GCNpHAp-iUPgw4_mOylSG5u9ktYXxPaSD-/s1600/eurcad.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVuRufAX0paXY7UmoJi87J-d9toCmsyJBKgz5mM1I2BPkbMBmlIInxOGFAiXT2Y1S5xuUJzensca60p06wCFH-S_1k_T-u8ENW-BpTrei5m3GCNpHAp-iUPgw4_mOylSG5u9ktYXxPaSD-/s1600/eurcad.png" /></a></div>
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<b>CADJPY</b></div>
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<b><br /></b></div>
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This was a straightforward trade. I saw a bullish pinbar and went long at the break of its high, and aimed for a reward of 1R, just below the next resistance level. The trade hit my profit target the next day.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyWhJneUso7DxfaAd2tJ2wHVl6dDZn1FNJO_BAV6iXjR1jM3rzwg62tLDjZDPRjHAzBdJs0tB6BaVcTK_KHmxr3NB5TTXH3X0fKlFHJdOdl3sS-z6Qq2emk6QPcMX3P7De1D2JaZJoZ-vX/s1600/cadjpy.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyWhJneUso7DxfaAd2tJ2wHVl6dDZn1FNJO_BAV6iXjR1jM3rzwg62tLDjZDPRjHAzBdJs0tB6BaVcTK_KHmxr3NB5TTXH3X0fKlFHJdOdl3sS-z6Qq2emk6QPcMX3P7De1D2JaZJoZ-vX/s1600/cadjpy.png" /></a></div>
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<b>THOUGHTS</b></div>
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<b><br /></b></div>
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Don't trade a setup just for the sake of trading. IF you must trade, only risk a small amount. And if you do something stupid and realise your mistake, get out. </div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3966777126728164142.post-91038090115943398012016-07-09T20:20:00.000+08:002016-07-09T20:27:10.074+08:00Week in Review: 4 June to 10 July 2016<div style="text-align: justify;">
The market has calmed after the 'Brexit' referendum, and now I'm back to trading normally again. </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
This week has actually been pretty busy. I closed five trades, with three winners, one loser and one breakeven.</div>
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<b></b><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b><b>GBPNZD</b></b></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
This was my "big" Brexit trade that I opened the previous week. </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Shorting the GBP was an easy decision. But short it against what? I flicked through my charts and decided that the GBPNZD provided the best trade. It offered a good setup AND offered the best overnight swap rate. Since I knew the trade could take weeks or even months, I felt the GBPNZD was ideal. </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
My short hit its profit target at 1.80000 a few days ago. My reward was 0.5R. I could've aimed for more, but 1.80000 is a significant support level, and a 0.5R reward is profitable, according to my backtests, so I got out here. However, if 1.80000 breaks and I see another bearish setup, I'll happily go short again.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHKY_oU_sFibmcMFZXm4rE1XYwGiBI5X3PU-lTZ1r_0E325CvXEsXOjHreMvCAgFMUJFp-lXm7AnpQHXos9Ke0km7VHHEZEG46L4ZlVvIDJPAtzHWi-yS0kRzAasj0sCcH2Xk7MFitIGNX/s1600/gbpnzd.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHKY_oU_sFibmcMFZXm4rE1XYwGiBI5X3PU-lTZ1r_0E325CvXEsXOjHreMvCAgFMUJFp-lXm7AnpQHXos9Ke0km7VHHEZEG46L4ZlVvIDJPAtzHWi-yS0kRzAasj0sCcH2Xk7MFitIGNX/s1600/gbpnzd.png" /></a></div>
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<br />
<b>NZDUSD</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
I opened this trade the previous week, after spotting a pinbar in line with the bullish trend. This trade worked out perfectly, and I hit my profit target on Monday, banking 1R reward.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0inwkqbefU3jjFl_tt52HfFQVNq5-NsRGASMYY3NJ1pzcQG8UXVQeMAFPA-YNoQDl0oVrObZfCFoW3QrIVx5PJovfmXCV6k0ns3GsxjNr40gpRENsqFG2KCr6DXFC0kmcrXk9LhoK_8qS/s1600/nzdusd.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0inwkqbefU3jjFl_tt52HfFQVNq5-NsRGASMYY3NJ1pzcQG8UXVQeMAFPA-YNoQDl0oVrObZfCFoW3QrIVx5PJovfmXCV6k0ns3GsxjNr40gpRENsqFG2KCr6DXFC0kmcrXk9LhoK_8qS/s1600/nzdusd.png" /></a></div>
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<br />
<b>USDCHF</b><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
I identified a pinbar setup and felt there was room for the USDCHF to fall. However, the market moved against me right after my entry, and hit my stop loss on the same day. Looking back, trading in FAVOUR of any European currency (EUR, GBP, CHF) was probably foolish, in the context of Brexit.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfOTuW-PDn8eUEA21Bn1FatO833IK393G5-JiIvttyRkqansRTneRwSI7ilykaNIpGFQAMu9rd7ImOqxcHlLegYw9ZWUi-9vkl__6tGN9CYcPuT73UWVfKBg3zwIr8C7N_bTG0iCpIHlMS/s1600/usdchf.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhfOTuW-PDn8eUEA21Bn1FatO833IK393G5-JiIvttyRkqansRTneRwSI7ilykaNIpGFQAMu9rd7ImOqxcHlLegYw9ZWUi-9vkl__6tGN9CYcPuT73UWVfKBg3zwIr8C7N_bTG0iCpIHlMS/s1600/usdchf.png" /></a></div>
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<b><br /></b>
<b>EURUSD</b><br />
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<b><br /></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
After losing on the USDCHF, I identified a bearish engulfing candle on the EURUSD, and went short. This was three days before the release of NFP, and I was hoping to hit my profit target before then.</div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
Alas, by the time of NFP's release, my trade was still open. I decided to exit at breakeven and avoid NFP. My reward was only 0.75R, and since major news are unpredictable, I thought it best to sit out.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRUEHZUvA08gJ3QOhwXU9nKIoXSqUQH7FPkDFPrb_kU95RPg1TjEmIGe5hntd9bK6hWi8L12L6iUtJ0Ql8pTNd75p5q5hMmKthyoqYQ2B1yfJKHQT9UtVsTte0xYmRgC9y7UDRo9OpAuPw/s1600/eurusd.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRUEHZUvA08gJ3QOhwXU9nKIoXSqUQH7FPkDFPrb_kU95RPg1TjEmIGe5hntd9bK6hWi8L12L6iUtJ0Ql8pTNd75p5q5hMmKthyoqYQ2B1yfJKHQT9UtVsTte0xYmRgC9y7UDRo9OpAuPw/s1600/eurusd.png" /></a></div>
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<br />
<b>EURAUD</b><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
I also shorted the EURAUD, after spotting a continuation pattern. It looked like the EURAUD wanted to break down further, so I aimed for a reward of 0.75R, just above the support level at 1.45000. Price came agonisingly close to my profit target on Friday night after NFP, but then stopped falling. At that point, I felt it was better to take profit at 0.6R, as the markets were closing for the weekend.</div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnAUYR-9p3DwJELbL8h7f0zA1VM2j2FtbMKKgLbsEq_aeZ61A-lRSwrY_JV2wOJGuqr8qK_riIz9bIwE5KDpC0G6h2UhplLxCXDe5g8ERcDrhMvNHeuejetmGWoQNGDRieE8npLPS06vSh/s1600/euraud.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnAUYR-9p3DwJELbL8h7f0zA1VM2j2FtbMKKgLbsEq_aeZ61A-lRSwrY_JV2wOJGuqr8qK_riIz9bIwE5KDpC0G6h2UhplLxCXDe5g8ERcDrhMvNHeuejetmGWoQNGDRieE8npLPS06vSh/s1600/euraud.png" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<b>THOUGHTS</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
It feels good to be back at trading.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
GBP should continue sliding, although I think some news traders who went short will begin to take profit (as I've done). Alot of GBP pairs are hitting long-term levels of support / resistance now, but once these levels break (and I think they will), the GBP should freefall. I don't see much political leadership in the UK at the moment, with David Cameron resigning and Brexit leaders Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson walking away from the mess they created. </div>
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3966777126728164142.post-81022144339864014682016-07-04T16:49:00.000+08:002016-07-04T16:49:00.199+08:00Semi-Annual Review: Jan to June 2016<div style="text-align: justify;">
Whew, we're halfway through 2016 already! That means I've got six months worth of trading performance to review for your pleasure. :)</div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
Trades opened: 63</div>
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Account growth: 18.17%</div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigvZqrOVkNSjDZ86P_sBc76LjBQG7gI39l231F534RK5DvdPtKztFWUleNyOs3SV8Vh0xV8fgSNVv8p0wxmua5-qKhCow1e-whWXOIp3bskFZlCqFcSC4yHOvyNKkTsRU9ezFxMtjMr3sO/s1600/eq_.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigvZqrOVkNSjDZ86P_sBc76LjBQG7gI39l231F534RK5DvdPtKztFWUleNyOs3SV8Vh0xV8fgSNVv8p0wxmua5-qKhCow1e-whWXOIp3bskFZlCqFcSC4yHOvyNKkTsRU9ezFxMtjMr3sO/s1600/eq_.PNG" /></a></div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
The first few months were choppy. I initially focused on only trading the majors, then added the minor pairs halfway through February. The equity curve picked up after that. (Protip: ignore the "expert" advice about trading the majors only. If you trade the minors as well, you have a greater selection of setups to choose from.)</div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
I've been pretty conservative with my position sizing, and tend to risk between 0.5% and 1.5% per trade. During the last few months, though, I've increased my max position size to 2%. I'm still committed to my drawdown rules (my general rule is to halve my max position size after a losing month, and double it after a winning month, up to a max of 2%). </div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
The last few weeks of June were really quiet. Because of a cluster of events like 'Brexit' and numerous interest rate decisions, I chose to sat most of June out. Psychologically, I began to lose touch with the market, and my research and backtesting slowed to a crawl. Keeping engaged with the market is crucial, even during "downtime". </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3966777126728164142.post-60071192442137078642016-07-04T16:26:00.000+08:002016-07-04T16:26:50.065+08:00Week in Review: 27 June to 3 July 2016<div style="text-align: justify;">
I returned to the market this week, and opened two trades. I went short on the GBPNZD, and long on the NZDUSD. Both trades are still open so I can't post their summary until they close. </div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
Sitting out of the markets for a few weeks has made me lethargic towards trading. I noticed that I've scaled back my backtesting and research ALOT. With markets returning back to normal, I hope to get back into my stride. </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3966777126728164142.post-12485222372384784522016-06-26T13:33:00.000+08:002016-06-26T13:33:00.869+08:00Week in Review: 20 June to 26 June 2016<div style="text-align: justify;">
No trades were opened this week due to the Brexit referendum. I'll return to the market next week. </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3966777126728164142.post-3773745030456066732016-06-19T12:51:00.003+08:002016-06-19T12:51:50.798+08:00Week in Review: 13 June to 19 June 2016<div style="text-align: justify;">
There were no trades this week due to four central banks releasing monetary statements at the same time. 'Brexit' referendum is also taking place next week. I plan to sit next week out as well. Polls are coming out every day that can potentially swing the market. </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3966777126728164142.post-16424171585073478482016-06-13T21:19:00.003+08:002016-06-13T21:59:26.090+08:00Review of May 2016<div style="text-align: justify;">
May has been another good month, with my account growing by 3.7%. It's slightly down from April (4.22%) but I'll take it.</div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
<a href="http://www.myfxbook.com/members/kevin_lacoste/chain-breaker/1466627">Myfxbook</a></div>
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<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px; line-height: 18.48px; text-align: justify;">
Trades: 11</div>
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Account growth: 3.7%</div>
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Nothing major stood out in May, which is a good thing, I suppose. I spent a bit of time on the 4H chart, but noticed (again) that 4H and daily signals tend to correlate highly e.g. a massive pinbar on the 4H chart will probably be a pinbar on the daily chart as well. </div>
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With four profitable months in a row, I'll increase my risk for June and start pushing hard on my advantage (max risk per trade will be 2%).<br />
<br />
edit: I also developed two more 'systems' during April/May. These two are based on trend reversals. I've now got seven 'systems' in total, which is enough. My goal now is to focus on plugging other holes that reduce my edge (money management, psychology etc), rather than purely backtest and develop systems. </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3966777126728164142.post-42163158426152323662016-05-28T11:49:00.000+08:002016-05-28T11:55:59.247+08:00Week in Review: 23 May to 29 May 2016<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
I had a good run this week, two winners and one very small loss. I also have another trade currently open. </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b><b>AUDNZD</b></b><br />
<br />
I went short during the previous week, after seeing a reversal pattern. This was a standard trade, and I got out at 1R on Monday. My profit target was almost perfect, as price reversed back up afterwards. The AUDNZD may still fall further, but I'm going to sit it out until I see another bearish signal.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
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Profit: +1R</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeJauIzAJbHkXcJdJcwJLiTZ3ybEmXE95WU6r3NUZ9bA6ZH0Frq-WfJrlfCpo5NKAizVCBJAIQvFl5wk7G4D-SrzNvj76oy3seWSVp7Mn7ulXWYM3FO8IcmjO_rbvqJdQKYPwrQP0VkdJH/s1600/az.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeJauIzAJbHkXcJdJcwJLiTZ3ybEmXE95WU6r3NUZ9bA6ZH0Frq-WfJrlfCpo5NKAizVCBJAIQvFl5wk7G4D-SrzNvj76oy3seWSVp7Mn7ulXWYM3FO8IcmjO_rbvqJdQKYPwrQP0VkdJH/s1600/az.png" /></a></div>
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<br />
<b>GBPUSD</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
I went long at the previous week's Friday low. I've found that Friday's highs and lows are good re-entry points, as this is where many other traders will re-enter after closing their trades for the weekend. I managed to hit my profit target the next day, just below the swing high.</div>
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Profit: 1.1R<br />
<b><br /></b>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLpWZFuNDwZ0bAzeWGuwTaBMsg5cZr__zoJbVN7tzFGF59jL8Vyhq2Y4l_iVdUEY1NbkMfYprMeZ00f49j68DBI6hHzkCktBNdXVCa_tDFvAudz5MAjcdUY0YgkGrnaaiVp8WlGRLXfb9C/s1600/gb.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhLpWZFuNDwZ0bAzeWGuwTaBMsg5cZr__zoJbVN7tzFGF59jL8Vyhq2Y4l_iVdUEY1NbkMfYprMeZ00f49j68DBI6hHzkCktBNdXVCa_tDFvAudz5MAjcdUY0YgkGrnaaiVp8WlGRLXfb9C/s1600/gb.png" /></a></div>
<b><br /></b>
<b><br /></b>
<b>EURJPY</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
This trade didn't quite work out. I saw a low volatility retracement, and went short at the break of its low. Price then ranged for the next two days, coming very close to hitting my stop loss twice. By Friday night, I saw that price wasn't going anywhere, and decided to exit before the weekend at a -0.1R loss. Price action on the EURJPY looked very choppy, so when I saw the opportunity to get out at near-breakeven before the weekend, I took it.</div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0QWkb1PJFeIMBr17_CzS1Q8kkKoTpxY867KvLMbI0MXwyeO1btrHC9vRb7ThbPaOVfGYYidUvZ-CtmCbJXTQuWvowJYgXYJ592446Km-d1h7s45UQdU5N0_cv31h9PmPIX_IUpkYvI3vl/s1600/ej.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0QWkb1PJFeIMBr17_CzS1Q8kkKoTpxY867KvLMbI0MXwyeO1btrHC9vRb7ThbPaOVfGYYidUvZ-CtmCbJXTQuWvowJYgXYJ592446Km-d1h7s45UQdU5N0_cv31h9PmPIX_IUpkYvI3vl/s1600/ej.png" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<b>THOUGHTS</b><br />
<br />
I have another trade that's still open (short EURNZD). I left it open since its about 100 pips away from my stop loss, so it has enough room to cater for any weekend gaps or widened spreads.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3966777126728164142.post-48424431884978110862016-05-22T20:15:00.002+08:002016-05-22T20:47:30.002+08:00Week in Review: 16 May to 22 May 2016<div style="text-align: justify;">
I finished this week at a slight loss. I lost one trade, and won another.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b>GBPUSD</b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
I opened this short the previous week, just after the BOE released its monetary statement. I saw no real reason for the GBP to rise, and a bearish setup that I'd identified earlier was still valid, so I went short. Price fell halfway towards my profit target before reversing and stopping me out. </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<div>
Profit: -1R</div>
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<br /></div>
<div>
<b>CADCHF</b></div>
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
This was an "after-weekend continuation" setup. On Monday, I went short at the previous week's Friday high. Price came within 4 pips of my profit target before reversing, and I decided to take profit at 0.4R. I didn't manage this trade well, and I think my emotions got the better of me (my trade would still be open if I had left it).</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
One thing I noticed was that the overnight swap was very expensive. After leaving the trade open for four days, the overnight swap had cost me over 5% of my position size. New rule: avoid shorting X/CHF pairs.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Profit: +0.4R</div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8xxRs8sgyFQB-XdjGn79h1HC6HxOj5uNlaNxtR_wd7FnCkLDF-LZd2eeL54J_MNNuOACAZlHcT0OP0DAOVl9NXklZGqH0EOaiNi0frZE-uIdqv_HVIQOgmC4pAlVPQhMz2NUmTeh2UWfZ/s1600/cad.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8xxRs8sgyFQB-XdjGn79h1HC6HxOj5uNlaNxtR_wd7FnCkLDF-LZd2eeL54J_MNNuOACAZlHcT0OP0DAOVl9NXklZGqH0EOaiNi0frZE-uIdqv_HVIQOgmC4pAlVPQhMz2NUmTeh2UWfZ/s1600/cad.png" /></a></div>
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<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>THOUGHTS</b></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Be more mindful of negative overnight swap as it can consume your edge. Conversely, favour trades with positive overnight swap. </div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0