Losing trade on the USDJPY

This was a trade I lost not long ago on the USDJPY, using the 5M chart.

I think I forced this trade. The confluence was weak. My candle entry signal occurred just outside the major 38.2% - 61.8% retracement area, and the candle itself wasn't prominent.

However, as you can see on the left side of the chart, there was sharp, convincing downward movement just prior. The upward retracement looked weak and indecisive. Plus, at my point of entry, I was getting a R:R of 3.5:1. I only needed a win-rate of a little less than 33% to breakeven.