Monday, November 24, 2014

Live calls: XAUGUSD, EURUSD, SGDJPY

My live calls for swing trades this week. I want to see how good my discretionary forecasting is. I'm using retail sentiment as a contrarian indicator, in conjunction with technical analysis (mainly Fib levels + big round numbers).

XAGUSD

Retail sentiment: Strongly bullish (from OANDA: blue is long, orange is short)



I expect price to turn south once it hits 17.000. Reasons: major S/R level, near 61.8% fib level, round number.

EURUSD

Retail sentiment: Moderately bullish (from OANDA)



Price will turn at 1.25000 and break support at 1.24000 on the back of Draghi's ECB speech.

SGDJPY

Retail sentiment: Extremely bearish (from Alpari)



This is an exotic cross-pair, but the price action and market structure look very clean. I expect a retracement to 90.000 (S/R, BRN + 50% fib level), and then price to rise.

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