Fundamental Outlook for Mar 8 - Mar 14

My outlook for Mar 8 - Mar 14.  

USD

The biggest headline was NFP once again beating expectations. 

Overall news: Bullish
Central bank bias: Mildly hawkish
Outlook for this week: Bullish


EUR

The ECB chose to hold interest rates last week. Unemployment news was also good, while other economic indicators were mixed.

Overall news: Bullish
Central bank bias: Ultra-dovish
Outlook for this week: Neutral


JPY

Quiet week for the JPY. Only one medium-impact news release (average cash earnings y/y, which was a little bullish).

Overall news: Mildly bullish
Central bank bias: Mildly dovish
Outlook for this week: Neutral


GBP

The BOE held interest rates last week, as expected. The BOE members' votes will be more meaningful when they are released later this month.  Other news was mixed. 

Overall news: Neutral
Central bank bias: Mildly hawkish
Outlook for this week: Mildly bullish


CAD

The BOC likewise held interest rates. There was some expectation of another rate drop, so this decision was bullish. However, most economic indicators last week fell below expectations.

Overall news: Mildly bearish
Central bank bias: Dovish
Outlook for this week: Bearish


AUD

The RBA was the fourth central bank to hold interest rates last week. The deputy governor indicated that the RBA was content with the current exchange rate, so perhaps the RBA will ease back on jawboning the AUD. Other news has been mixed.

Overall news: Bullish
Central bank bias: Dovish
Outlook for this week: Neutral


NZD

News has been mostly neutral. 

Overall news: Neutral
Central bank bias bias: Marginally hawkish
Outlook for this week: Mildly Bullish


CHF

Only a few news releases last week, but both were bearish. SNB's foreign reserves increased, signalling attempts by the central bank to devalue the CHF.

Overall news: Bearish
Central bank bias: Dovish
Outlook for this week: Bearish


MY CURRENCY PAIR WATCHLIST

Looking for longs: USDCAD, USDCHF, NZDCHF, NZDCAD, GBPCAD, GBPCHF
Looking for shorts: none