A trade I didn't take (GBPUSD)

With the FOMC press conference this week, I decided to sit the whole week out. In fact, I probably won't trade until after New Year's. 

Anyway, this was a trade I was tempted to trade on Monday. I saw a bullish pinbar on the GBPUSD. My technical indicators all said "BUY", but zooming out, I saw that the GBPUSD was in a longer-term downtrend, and I'd be buying into the upper boundary of the descending channel, posted below.

(click to enlarge)

I also considered the major FOMC decision this week, which has been widely anticipated and speculated for the whole year. This may be the first Federal Reserve hike since the GFC in 2008. Before the release of major news, the market will usually be choppy and indecisive as traders stay out. I took that into consideration as well.

And with the upcoming news release, there may be widely fluctuating spreads and gaps. Just another reason to stay out.

Major indecision + major channel resistance + wide spreads = STAY OUT!

Half the battle is in finding winning trades. The other half is in avoiding losers.