10th April 2012 - loss on EURJPY

A pin bar formed on the EURJPY overnight at a support level. I placed a pending long which was triggered, then ended in a loss. The pin bar is visually presented below.

Details of the order zoomed in...

I looked at any possible news releases that would explain the downturn but couldn't find anything of real importance. I guess this is one of those statistical trades destined to fail. A factor that could've went against my trade was the strong bearish momentum before the pinbar, where three consecutive bear candles exist. However, the pin bar itself was quite prominent and closed with a bullish tone. I don't really see anything screaming out not to take this trade.

Tightening my SL to the 25% mark of the pinbar helped improve R:R once again.

30 January 2011 trade

I went long on the EURJPY as soon as the market opened this morning. The EURJPY then dived throughout the day. Just a few moments ago my stop loss was hit and I lost around 85 pips.

Weekend trade setups

I currently have no trades open, but the close on Friday has presented two trading opportunities come Monday.

Trade Opportunity #1 - Inside bar on the AUDUSD

An inside bar also presented itself on the AUDCAD pair, but since it is highly correlated with the AUDUSD, I will stick with the Aussie for my analysis.



Normally I'd be happy to trade this inside bar by going long on the breakout, but as you can see, the inside bar is just short of a major resistance level that has held twice in the last six months. Additionally the RBA is expected to announce a reduction in interest rates on February 7, giving me about a week for a pending long to hit and achieve a 1:2 R:R ratio. Additionally the inside bar is bordering the upper-side of a trend channel. All these factors make the Aussie dollar look bearish.

The only factor that'll favour a bullish breakout is the 8 and 21 EMA. I'm thinking of skipping this possible trade because of these conflicting signals.

Trade Opportunity #2 - Pinbar on the EURJPY

The following setup on the EURJPY is looking more juicy.



We have a bullish pinbar that is favoured by the following factors:

- It formed as a result of bouncing from support and the 8 EMA.
- It is in the direction of the 8 and 21 EMA.
- It has plenty of scope for a bullish run (the next level of resistance is around 105.600, about 400 pips away).
- If we examine the bull-run from January 17th, it looks like part of Wave-4 in Elliot wave theory (a minor point for me as I'm not a big user of wave theory).

The only factor against the bullish pinbar is a potential resistance level around 102.500, although it looks minor.

On the sum of probabilities, this would make a suitable trade.