Daily Trade - 28 Nov 2016

I'm preparing to go long on the USDCAD with a buy limit order at Friday's low. Price action is quite choppy, but this is good for limit entry orders.

(click to enlarge)

Retail sentiment is 69% bearish, which is good.

If triggered, I anticipate this trade to close within 2-3 days. There's no major news on the horizon for the next 72 hours. 

Daily Trade - 24 Nov 2016

I went long on the GBPCHF. Price just broke through a short-term resistance level, and produced a solid engulfing candle pattern. 

(click to enlarge)

Retail sentiment is mostly bullish, though (63%).

I don't like trading WITH retail sentiment as they're usually wrong, but the technicals for a long position line up very well, so I'm taking the trade, but with reduced risk (0.75% instead of 1% that I normally trade).

Upcoming events:

Nov 28 Monday - ECB speech regarding Brexit. Potential for significant impact, although it'll be the politicians, and not the central banks, that'll determine the nature of Brexit. Bank of England has already released its post-Brexit economic forecast, which is very bullish. I'll stay in the trade during this event.

2 Dec Friday - NFP. Last one for the year, but generally doesn't move the GBPCHF much. Will stay in the trade unless very close to profit target.

Review of September 2016

I managed to scratch a bit of profit during September, increasing my account by 0.44%.

Myfxbook

Trades: 7

Account growth: 0.44%

September has been very quiet. I normally open 10+ trades per month, but during September, I only opened seven. I was more selective about my trades this month, mainly because of the loss I endured during August.

I limited my risk to 0.5%, up to a maximum of 1% for a few trades. I believe if I had been more aggressive with my risk, I probably would've grown my account by 1% for the month. That's the price you pay for being conservative.

I also reached my 100th trade milestone this month. A snapshot of my trading account is below (click to enlarge):

My profit factor is currently 1.31, which is on par with my backtests.   

RESEARCH

I've devoted September to researching ranging markets, with limited success. I've developed a range breakout system, although I'm not 100% happy with it. This is a backtest equity curve from 239 sample trades, from 2012 to 2016:

My main concern is how "lumpy" my wins are. I'd prefer to see a more even distribution of wins and losses. I'll continue my research in October.

NEXT MONTH

My current drawdown is still over 5%, so I'll keep my risk to 1% per trade during October. Once my drawdown falls below 5%, I can ramp up my risk to 1.5%-2%.

Week in Review: 26 Sept to 2 Oct 2016

This week was profitable. I opened two trades, winning one and exiting another at breakeven.

GBPNZD

I saw a good sell signal on the GBPNZD on Monday morning, and went short at Friday's high. Price moved in my favour quickly, and I took profit at 1.1R. I thought about extending my profit target, but didn't want to get too greedy.

EURGBP

The EURGBP hit resistance at 0.87000 this week, and produced a bearish signal. I went short at the break of Tuesday's low. 

However, Wednesday produced a neutral doji. When Thursday failed to break any lower, I decided to play it safe and exit near breakeven (technically it was a loss, but only -0.08R). Wednesday's neutral candle and confusing signals on other GBP pairs compelled me to exit while I was still able.

THOUGHTS

I continued to keep my risk low this week (0.5%-1% risk per trade). The week was uneventful, which is a good thing.  

Week in Review: 19 Sept to 25 Sept 2016

This week has been pretty quiet. I only opened a single trade.

Both the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan released monetary statements on Wednesday, which complicated things a little.

EURJPY

On Monday morning, I went long on the EURJPY. I placed a buy order at Friday's low, anticipating that price would rebound upwards.

Because my profit target and stop loss were pretty tight, I hoped to close this trade by late Tuesday, just before the Bank of Japan's announcement on Wednesday.

However, by mid Tuesday, price was going nowhere and hovered near breakeven. I didn't want to be in the market by Wednesday morning, so I closed the trade at a very small loss (-0.2R).

When the BOJ announcement came out, price fell and would've hit my stop loss. I'm happy to have got out relatively unscathed.

RESEARCH

I'm currently focusing on a range breakout strategy. The backtest results look interesting so far. I'll post more details if further backtesting is successful.

THOUGHTS

September continues to be slow. I've kept to my risk limit of 0.5%-1% per trade, and will continue to do so until I see my equity curve turn positive again.

Being aware of news saved my hide this week. Always plan your trade around major news events.

Review of August 2016

August has been pretty brutal. My account slid -2.93% for the month. 

Myfxbook

Trades: 18

Account growth: -2.93%

July and August has seen volatility drop across a large number of pairs, especially the JPY and GBP. Most of my systems rely on breakouts with a trend, so quiet, indecisive markets hurt me alot. I think this hole needs to be plugged, so I'm going to spend September focusing on researching quiet market conditions, and hopefully come up with something that's tradeable. 

As mentioned in my previous post, I've already reduced my risk for August to a maximum of 1.5%. But my drawdown is becoming uncomfortable (around 6% now), so for September, I'm reducing my risk further to 0.5%. At this point, it's not about making money. It's about stopping the bleeding, and waiting for my equity curve to turn upward again with some consistency. Once that happens, I can bring up my risk again. 

Review of July 2016

I'm back. I took a "break" over the last few weeks and took my mind off trading (although I still traded). I just wanted some time off to recharge my batteries and do something else with my free time besides trading. 

July was a breakeven month for me. I grew my account by a marginal 0.08%. 

Myfxbook

Trades: 12

Account growth: 0.08%

I closed twelve trades in July, which is what I expected. The major theme for me was the "Brexit" referendum and its aftermath (although the GBP has calmed down now. But I feel a major move is about to take place again as markets don't range forever).

Because I only broke even for July, I'm reducing my maximum risk to 1.5% for August. I'm not in tune with the market, but I'm not completely out of tune either. I think 1.5% strikes a reasonable balance.

I believe that sticking close to 1:1 R:R ratios has prevented a losing streak for July. My distribution of wins and losses during July is well-mixed. 

My sticking point for July is being more aware of news. There was at least one trade that I should've avoided (I went long on the USDCHF just before the Federal Reserve made an announcement on 27 July. This was a stupid trade, and was purely based on a technical setup that became invalid on the release of news). ALWAYS be aware of upcoming news as they have the power to overturn technical setups.