Tuesday, May 8, 2012

8th May 2012 - currencies in trend

I'll continue my backtest on "quality" inside bars in the future. I did some more backtesting from 2001 to 2004 and the results weren't pretty. Overall, the trading system looks profitable but there was massive drawdown between 2001 and 2004, along with a massive win spike during 2010 and 2011. The distribution of wins and losses is significantly uneven. I may post details later on and perhaps extend the backtest to the 90s.

Currencies in trend


Price on the AUDJPY is currently in a bearish trend. If price retraces to the marked resistance level and produce an entry signal, this will look like an excellent trade. The main obstacle would be the VBN 80.000.


Another Yen pair, the USDJPY is likewise in a bearish trend. However, it has already retraced so I may have missed my chance to enter. The quality of this potential setup isn't as good as the AUDJPY.


Gold is telling an interesting story. We may see the yellow metal hitting $1500 per ounce in the next month or so. I'm expecting a bounce from $1550/oz, and will short if an entry signal is generated around $1610/oz.

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