Tuesday, December 31, 2013

AUDJPY: Progress on shaved candle system

This is a follow-on from this post.

My sample size is now 251. I did some more tinkering and discovered that a time-based filter seemed more useful than a range-based filter. This is the equity curve for all trades taken between 00:00 and 14:00 GMT, which roughly cover the Asian, European and Europe/US overlap sessions. It seems to do poorly during the US session, which shouldn't be too surprising.

Reward-to-risk = 1.75:1. Risking 1% per trade.

Now this is starting to look interesting. Max drawdown is currently 11.9%.


  1. Interesting. As always, in awe of your backtesting prowess.
    Indicator for metatrader here if you don't have one.

    One potential modification - only take up shaved bar long if the most recent shaved bar before it is a down shaved bar and let at least some of the position run until a down shaved bar forms (and vice versa for shorts). May increase the chance of catching large moves, avoiding chop, improving win rate and win: loss ratio. - at the expense of opportunity which can be at least in part offset by trading across multiple pairs and the potential to trade larger position sizes with a similar potential max peak to trough drawdown.

    1. Hey thanks. :)

      I've just about tested 2010, 2011, 2012 and first half of 2013. The system performed well until mid-2012. I'll post some more details in a future post. There was some interesting findings, especially on the usefulness of time-based filters. What you've described (going long after a down move, and vice versa) also seemed to work really well. I still got alot of data to crunch, though...


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