Saturday, March 29, 2014

Q3 Quarterly Report (January 2014 to March 2014)

The end of the third quarter of the Australian financial year is at hand. I won't be trading again until April 1 so now's a good time to file my quarterly report for the blog.

The Statistics

Quarterly return on Equity: 12% (approximately)
Annualised return on Equity: 48%
Total Trades: 79
Profit Factor: 1.83
Maximum Drawdown (of total equity): 2.95%

Equity Curve

The above is my equity curve from January 1 2014 to today. I left the Y-axis blank for privacy reasons, but it should give a general impression of how I performed over the last three months.

The flat period between trades 14 and 27 was due to me trying to scalp with micro-lots (it didn't go anywhere and was the last time I looked at scalping).

Outside of that period, we can see a gradual but constant rise in equity. My results plateaued in the last three weeks until I scored some good winners this week. 

Major Developments for the Quarter

Last week I took stock of all my trading systems and tried to identify any weaknesses. I discovered that my trades on the weekly timeframe were performing well below expectations, and that I was often tempted to tamper with these trades since they took so long to hit their TP or SL. I've decided to shelve my weekly trading systems and purely stick to my daily systems. I found my daily systems to be performing well, both from a statistical and psychological viewpoint. 

I also created a new daily trading, Ebisu, based on the pinbar candlestick pattern. I now currently trade with two systems: Hermes (daily low volatility breakout) and Ebisu (large daily pinbars). 

Next Quarter Thoughts

My broker IC Markets recently added the USDCNH and USDRUB pairs, which is a major development for retail forex traders. At last, ordinary people can start trading the yuan and Russian rubles. The USDCNH is particularly interesting as the Chinese yuan seeks to replace the USD as the global reserve currency in the next 10 years. With the USDCNH now available, I hope to start trading this and diversify my portfolio. Who knows, we may see other CNH pairs like the AUDCNH soon, which will be phenomenal. 

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