Saturday, June 21, 2014

HK central bank stance on the USDHKD peg

I spent tonight doing some fundamental analysis of the USDHKD. I'm not so much concerned about potential bullishness of the USDHKD as I am about the USDHKD peg itself. To me, the peg is of paramount importance, since it provides a near risk-free carry trade, regardless of the price moving up or down.

HK Central Bank policy and statements

The HK central bank (Hong Kong Monetary Authority) maintains its website here, where you can find its press releases and statements. 

The latest statement regarding the peg was released during October 2013. The head of the HKMA seemed ardent in defending the peg (the Linked Exchanged Rate System, aka LERS). 

We should bear in mind that the currency regime is the basic building block of all our economic and financial activities.  The monetary regime must be handled with utmost care and caution in order to preserve continuity and credibility.  Shifting from one regime to another carries enormous risks and may lead to disastrous outcomes.  Over the past three decades, Hong Kong’s LERS has worked well and proved to be effective.  The LERS has served as the cornerstone for Hong Kong's monetary and financial stability.  We acknowledge that it is not a perfect regime.  We have studied and evaluated many different alternatives, and have reached the conclusion that the LERS is still the most appropriate regime for Hong Kong.  This is the same conclusion shared by the International Monetary Fund.  Lastly, let me reaffirm that for the reasons set out above, there is neither the need nor the intention to change the LERS.

The emboldened sentences seem to be particularly aimed at speculators. 

There is also a FAQ in pdf format. 

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