Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Analysis of AUDUSD Forecast for 21 July 2014

The forecast for 21 July 2014:

Forecast: Being a non-news Monday, I expect volatility to be low. The day's movement will probably be around 67% of ATR(14). Price will be range-friendly with a bullish bias. Friday's high and the 0.94000 level will pose a significant obstacle to upward movement. I expect price to range between 0.93900 and 0.94000, and between 0.94000 and 0.94100 (Friday's high). If 0.94100 breaks, then an upward breakout is likely and I would look to enter on the retracement.

If price falls, I expect strong support to hold at 0.93650. Price should rebound and head upwards.

Here was the 5M chart for yesterday (21 July 2014).

Was direction correct? I predicted an overall bullish direction for the day, with heavy resistance between 0.94100 and 0.93900. The direction was wrong, but I was correct in identifying that 0.94000 would provide resistance. I predicted that if price fell, it would find support at 0.93650. It found support at 0.93700, about five pips away, so this was about correct. 

Was price action correct? I predicted the day would be range-friendly. There were basically two 15-pip ranges for the day, with a bearish bias, so I see this forecast was correct. However, I was expecting a strong price rebound from support at 0.93650-0.93700 which didn't happen. 

Was volatility correct? I believed the day's range would be about 67% ATR(14). ATR(14) was 57 pips at the close of Friday, so 67% would be 38 pips. The day's range was 30 pips, or 53%. It was relatively close. 

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