I spent today researching the time where we can expect to find the daily high and low. If you have some idea on when to expect the daily high or low, then I expect that reversal signals will be more meaningful around this time.
I focused on the USDJPY and examined 100 days (7 Nov 2012 to 29 Mar 2013), using data from IC Markets. For each hour, what's the probability of finding the daily high or low within that hour? (00:00 = close of NY)
There's a few interesting findings:
- The hour 00:00 has the highest probability of containing the daily high or low.
- 30% of daily highs and lows were created in the first 3 hours of the day.
- 50% of daily highs and lows were created within the first 10 hours of the day.
The overall conclusion seems to be that if you're day-trading the USDJPY and intend to 'let your profits run' for the whole day, the best time to open your position would be within the first 3 hours.