Today's actually been pretty busy on the USDJPY. I took around 14 trades and made a small profit. My broker will be happy. A few of those losses stemmed from ultra-tight entries and stop losses.
This was a notable trade I took recently, an hour before New York opens. Bears have been in total control throughout the day, and I was looking for shorting opportunities. Price had stopped moving after the break of 116.000 and I wondered what would happen next.
I theorised that price would retrace back from 115.560 to 116.000, which was also the 50% retracement level of the most recent downswing. Then I thought, if I believed price was going to retrace back up to 116.000, why not go long until then?
I went long at 115.688 and exited at 115.834 when I was that price was struggling to make a new high on the M1 chart. My profit was a little over 1R.
Trading counter-trend is always dangerous, but if you have a price forecast, it's your job as a trader to trade it.
(click to enlarge)