Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Still alive...

No, I didn't blow up last week during the big CHF move. Incidentally, I had a live CHF position, and was short the CHFSGD. It was a swing trade, and I had risked 1% equity with a 300 pip stop loss. I ended up losing 650 pips if I recall correctly (350 pip slippage), and ended up losing 2%. No big deal. But I know there were some traders who leveraged themselves to the hilt and went long on the EURCHF, and blew themselves up. Some went into negative equity to the tune of hundreds of thousands of dollars. 

I opened a thread at Babypips - What lessons can we learn from this? - listing some ideas on how to avoid or reduce the probability of a catastrophic loss in the future. 

I think the biggest lesson we can learn was posted by Master Tang - "Never believe a central banker". The SNB's sneaky decision to unpeg the CHF from the EUR has set a new precedent regarding the reliability of central banks. They can't be trusted anymore. The tactic of 'jawboning' by central banks will be less effective now. Words are cheap. 

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