Sunday, March 15, 2015

Fundamental Outlook for Mar 15 - Mar 21


My outlook for Mar 8 - Mar 14.  


USD

Unemployment claims beat expectations last week, but retail sales and sentiment were quite bearish. Inflation figures were also lower than expected.

Overall news: Bearish
Central bank bias: Mildly hawkish
Outlook for this week: Neutral


EUR

Not much news. ECB head Draghi praised the bank's QE policy, saying it helped shield other euro countries from contagion. This was a dovish statement. 

Overall news: Mildly bearish
Central bank bias: Ultra-dovish
Outlook for this week: Bearish


JPY

No major news. A few medium-impact economic figures were released which were bearish. 

Overall news: Mildly bearish
Central bank bias: Mildly dovish
Outlook for this week: Mildly bearish


GBP

BOE Governor Carney stated twice last week to expect gentle interest rate hikes over the next 3 years, confirming the bank's hawkish stance. Voting member Weale indicated that the BOE will be watching wage growth to help them decide when to do so. 

Overall news: Bullish
Central bank bias: Mildly hawkish
Outlook for this week: Bullish


CAD

The biggest news item last week was an uptick in the unemployment rate.

Overall news: Mildly bearish
Central bank bias: Dovish
Outlook for this week: Bearish


AUD

News has been mixed, leaning towards the bearish side. The unemployment rate has improved, but business confidence fell. Chinese economic figures were slightly positive. RBA Assistant Governor Kent said the AUD is still relatively high, talking the AUD down. 

Overall news: Mildly bearish
Central bank bias: Dovish
Outlook for this week: Bearish


NZD

The RBNZ chose to hold interest rates last week. There was some expectation of a rate drop, so this decision was bullish. RBNZ Governor Wheeler indicated the NZD is over-valued, a dovish statement. However, the RBNZ is also keeping watch on the housing market. Any further monetary softening may trigger a housing bubble. I've downgraded the central bank's bias to neutral due to the mixed signals the RBNZ is giving. 

Overall news: Bullish
Central bank bias bias: Neutral
Outlook for this week: Mildly Bullish


CHF

No news last week. 

Overall news: Neutral
Central bank bias: Dovish
Outlook for this week: Mildly bearish

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