I spent the last few days researching the behaviour of the AUDUSD on the 4H timeframe. Specifically, I was looking at how "decisive" price movement was throughout the day.
I measure "decisiveness" by dividing the size of the candle's body by the candle's range (so decisiveness = candle body / candle range). Price movement on a full-bodied candle is more decisive than a doji, as price moved in one direction in the full-bodied candle, while it moved up and down in the doji. Examples are below:
Using the formula [decisiveness = candle body / candle range], I tried to measure the average "decisiveness" for every 4H block of time (00:00, 04:00. 08:00 etc), with 00:00 being the NY Close. My data stemmed back to August 2011, and was sourced from IC Markets.
We see that the average range increases throughout the day, until it hits 20:00, which is after London closes. However, it will tend to move decisively (i.e. in one direction) most often during 04:00 and 08:00, during the Sydney and Tokyo sessions, but only by a bit. My guess is that this is where Australian news will often be released. Decisiveness also increases marginally at 16:00, which I assume is also when most US news is also released.
Can the info above be used to develop a system? By itself, probably not. But I think it can be useful as a component of intra-day trading. So, for example, you may prefer to use stop entries during 04:00 and 08:00, and limit entries during 12:00 and 20:00. But those are just my thoughts.