Tuesday, October 8, 2013

Volume-range analysis findings

I backtested my volume-range analysis idea on 13 months of 1H data on the EURJPY and didn't find a reliable edge. I was looking for pinbars that had a smaller range and a higher volume, on the assumption that the big money was entering the market and absorbing short-term momentum. My profit factor was 0.97, using a R:R of 1:1. This was after gathering 233 samples. I based my entry on the break of the pinbar, with my stop loss on the long end of the pinbar.

So basically the idea was a coin toss. Not that this is a bad sign. My backtest was 'dumb', but if we take the chart's context into account (e.g. support/resistance, fib levels), I think it's possible to create an edge.

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