Thursday, October 1, 2015

RESEARCH: Morning breakouts on the AUDJPY part 2

This is part 2 of Morning breakouts on the AUDJPY.

I finished backtesting the rest of 2013, 2014 and early 2015, and collected 412 sample trades. The backtest degraded quite badly. Here are the profit factors for various reward-to-risk ratios.

It's pretty much breakeven.

Wednesday continues to perform very badly. What happens if we omit Wednesday trades? We're left with 316 sample trades, which provided the following results:

The results are better, but profitability is too marginal for my liking. Maybe it can be improved with some discretion, like avoiding trades that are next to support or resistance.

Heh, this is what my typical day is like, testing new ideas and reaching deadends 95% of the time. 

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