Saturday, October 10, 2015

WEEK IN REVIEW: 5 Oct to 11 Oct 2015

I ended this week at breakeven. I opened four trades, won one with a 1R reward, lost one, and got out at breakeven with two other trades. I entered a fifth trade on Friday, which is still open.


An engulfing candle formed on Friday, which I saw as a very bearish signal. On Monday, I went short at the break of Friday's low, and took profit at 1R a few days later.

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The EURCHF has been ranging for awhile, and it looked like it was primed to break out on the downside. On Monday, I went short at Friday's high using a sell limit order, and aimed for a reward of 1.25R.

Price moved close to my profit target before reversing back to my entry. Seeing a very bullish candle, I decided to play it safe and close the trade, getting out at breakeven.

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I saw a bearish pinbar on Monday, which signaled a continuation of the recent downward move. I saw some scope for a 1R reward, and went short at the break of Monday's low. An RBA news announcement on Tuesday saw price move against me shortly after triggering my entry, and I got taken out. 

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Tuesday produced a bearish pinbar during a downward trend, so I went short on Wednesday at the break of Tuesday's low. Price moved very close to my profit target before reversing to my entry point. I decided to get out at breakeven since price came agonisingly close to my profit target, and knew that I'd become tilted if I turned my near-win into a loss. 

If I had held on, the trade would've won. Was my decision to get out correct? Well, the bullish pinbar had formed near the recent major swing low. I think it was a safe decision. 

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I opened this trade on Friday, after seeing a bullish pinbar on Thursday. I wasn't concerned about major price level 185.000 as it's been repeatedly broken in the last month, so I don't think there'll be many orders clustered around here. 

Friday produced a bearish pinbar, but reversals are pretty normal on Fridays as traders exit for the weekend. I decided to hold on over the weekend. 

(click to enlarge)


Don't think there's much I can learn this week. When price comes really close to your profit target and reverses back to your entry point, is it prudent to close the trade and get out at breakeven? I'd say yes. The reversal shows that there is significant support / resistance just before your profit target, and momentum is now against you. 

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