Friday, November 22, 2013

AUD: Bulls routed

There's still a few hours left before Friday's close, but it looks like the bulls on the Aussie dollar have routed. A few news release this week looked to have negatively impacted the AUD. This includes RBA Governor Glenn Steven's speech on Thursday, who praised the AUD as a floating currency, but reiterated the RBA's right to intervene (interpreted by the market as bearish). China's flash manufacturing PMI also came out below forecast (50.4 vs 50.9). Anyone trading the AUD as a proxy for China would've been hurt. So overall, this week's fundamentals have hurt the AUD.

Technically, the AUDJPY is back at a support level around 92.500. I think this would make a good place for bulls to buy the AUDJPY at a cheap price (or for bears to position themselves for a breakout on the downside). There's a few more weeks until the RBA's next interest rate decision. However, the ascending channel that I identified earlier is very close to being broken. The high of the channel should also have been touched already (or at least, price should be close to it). Instead we are at the bottom. 

I'll post a more-detailed analysis tomorrow.

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