Friday, November 8, 2013

RBA Statement - November 2013

+ growth with Asian trade partners remain average
+ little change in forecast for next year
+ Australian growth remains slightly below average, but good signs are emerging (rising consumer sentiment & sales)
+ house prices now above 2010 peak, optimism in housing market
+ labour remains soft, unemployment expected to rise next year
+ inflation at or below target
+ expect mining investment to decline

RBA policy:
+ desires lower AUD
+ content with monetary stimulus already in place
+ open to cutting rates if needed while meeting inflation target (current inflation = 2.2%, target range = 2-3%)

My thoughts

Housing bubble is emerging, which the RBA may be wary of pumping further. Mixed signals and rising consumer sentiment suggest no drastic need to cut rates. Inflation is in the lower target range, so the RBA still has some bullets left. RBA will try to talk down the AUD and stir uncertainty regarding interest rate cuts. 

RBA probably won't cut rates until the end of the year, if at all.

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