Sunday, November 3, 2013

Still plugging away on EURJPY daytrading system

The EURJPY has become my obsession over the last month. My system development has moved lower from the 5M timeframe to the 1M timeframe.

Many people say that the 1M chart is just noise, but it really depends on what you're looking at. If you're trying to trade candlestick patterns like pinbars or dojis, then I'd agree. The candlestick patterns produced are probably meaningless. However, information that is "smoothed" out tend to be more clean, such as moving averages or average true ranges. 

The following is an equity curve of my "range breakout" system on the 1M chart. The thing with the 1M chart is that you can catch some REALLY big breakouts. A 20 pip reward breakout may not seem much, until it's measured against a 2 pip stop loss, which is what you're dealing with on the 1M chart. The equity curve is based on a 4:1 reward:risk ratio and 1% risk per trade. The sample size is only 100. 

These trades took place over six days in April 2011. Achieving a 50% return in such a short span seems a little too 'holy grail'. 

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