Monday, November 11, 2013

AUDJPY: 11th November 2013

I lost around 13.5 pips on the AUDJPY today. The market was very choppy. There wasn't much news today, and being a Monday, I expected the market to be a little subdued, but not this much. I won two trades, but lost four. Here's a snapshot of the market I experienced today.

The AUDJPY remained in a 5-15 pip range for most of the Asian and European session. My losses mainly stemmed from trying to trade upside breakouts from this range, especially after some good news on the AUD came out today (new month-to-month home loans increased by 4.4% vs forecast of 3.6%, suggesting increasing confidence among Australian borrowers). 

After four losses, I felt emotionally unbalanced and halted trading. 13 pips isn't alot, but it's the whole concept of being intellectually wrong that tilted me. 

I still think there's good upside potential on the daily chart. Volatility has frozen after a steep fall, and the ascending channel is still in place. It looks as if the 92.000 - 93.000 is behaving as a significant support / resistance level in the last few months.

Two news releases are coming out tomorrow: Japanese M/M Tertiary Industry Activity, and the National Australia Bank's Business Confidence survey. It's the NAB business survey that I'm most interested in. The Reserve Bank has been busy talking the AUD down for the last week. If good news comes out, this should hopefully spur some upside movement and shake out the range over the last two days.  

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